Asking Prices Rise Year over Year in 6 out of 7 Election Swing States

With yet another monthly increase, prices are up 2.5% year over year and are on track to rise almost 4% in 2012. Meanwhile, rents – now up 4.8% year over year – still outpacing prices.

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Good News for Obama: Prices Up 6 in out of 7 Swing States, including Nevada and FloridaPresidential elections are decided in swing states, so this month we’re taking a special look at prices in the 7 states that Real Clear Politics considers “toss-up states” – which means they’re still up for grabs for either candidate. President Obama is vulnerable on housing since many of the Administration’s housing policies designed to help people refinance or keep their homes have fallen short of expectations. But Obama should breathe a sigh of relief: asking prices in 6 of the 7 swing states are up year over year.

Swing State*	Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, September 2012
Nevada	7.0%
Florida	6.9%
Colorado	5.5%
Iowa	3.2%
Missouri	2.4%
Virginia	0.4%
North Carolina	-0.8%

* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of October 2.

The two swing states with the biggest year-over-year price increases –Nevada and Florida – had seen huge price declines earlier and lots of foreclosures, so their recent price increases will be especially appreciated by Obama. Among all the swing states, prices declined year over year only inNorth Carolina, and by less than 1%.

What about other states that could still be in play? In addition to the 7 swing states, Real Clear Politics names 8 states “leaning” toward Obama and 3 states “leaning” toward Romney. (All other states are either “likely” or “solid” for one of the candidates.) Of these, prices are falling most in Pennsylvania, which leans toward Obama, and South Carolina, which leans toward Romney. But Michigan and Arizona – which along with Florida, Nevada and California (which is solidly Obama) suffered the most “housing misery” after the bubble burst – have seen big price rebounds over the past year.

States LeaningToward Obama*	Y-o-Y % change in asking prices,  September 2012
Michigan	7.9%
Ohio	2.7%
Minnesota	2.1%
Oregon	1.9%
Wisconsin	0.7%
New Hampshire	-0.1%
New Mexico	-1.5%
Pennsylvania	-2.4%

* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of October 2.

States Leaning Toward Romney*	Y-o-Y % change in asking prices,  September 2012
Arizona	18.1%
Indiana	-0.7%
South Carolina	-1.9%

* as categorized by Real Clear Politics, as of October 2.

In summary: there are 4 states that are tossups or only leaning one way or the other where a severe housing bust led to really miserable housing markets:Nevada, Florida, Michigan and Arizona. President Obama might have been especially vulnerable to criticism about housing in these states. However, all 4 of these states have seen strong price increases year over year, from almost 7% in Florida to 18% in Arizona. And, among the 7 toss-up states, 6 out of 7 saw prices rise. That’s good news for Obama.

National Home Prices On Track to Rise Almost 4% in 2012 – Ending Years of Price DeclinesIn September, asking prices rose 0.5% month over month, and 2.5% year over year. Prices have been stable or rising throughout 2012, and if the year-to-date price trend continues, asking prices will be up almost 4% in 2012 – ending several years of price declines. Nearly three-quarters of large metros – 74 out of 100 – had year-over-year price increases, and even more – 86 out of 100 — had quarter-over-quarter increases, seasonally adjusted.

September 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
	% change in asking prices	# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases	% change in asking prices,excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted	0.5%	(not reported)	0.6%
Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted	1.6%	86	1.9%
Year-over-year	2.5%	74	3.5%

Phoenix Still Sets Pace for Home Price ReboundsAsking prices in Phoenix rose 23.8% year over year in September, making Phoenix by far the biggest price-gainer in the country. What do the 10 metros with the largest price increases have in common? Truth is: not much! Phoenix, Cape Coral – Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and Orlando all had post-bubble price declines of half or more, so these year-on-year increases are a bounceback. In contrast, the price gains in San Jose and Denver are thanks to strong job growth. Prices in Oakland and San Jose are getting an additional lift from the decline in inventory and vacancies in those markets because tighter supply pushes up prices.

Metros with Largest Year-over-Year Asking Price Increases
#	U.S. Metro	Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, Sept 2012	Y-o-Y % change in asking prices, Jun 2012
1	Phoenix, AZ	23.8%	18.1%
2	Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	16.7%	12.8%
3	Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI	12.0%	6.3%
4	West Palm Beach, FL	11.6%	9.0%
5	San Jose, CA	10.4%	6.8%
6	Detroit, MI	9.1%	3.6%
7	Oakland, CA	9.0%	1.0%
8	Denver, CO	8.7%	6.0%
9	Orlando, FL	8.7%	5.0%
10	Tucson, AZ	8.6%	0.5%

Among the 100 largest metro areas.

Rents Up 4.8% Year over Year, Led by Houston and MiamiIn September, rents rose nationally 4.8% year over year. Among the largest 25 rental markets, rents rose the most in Houston and Miami, where they climbed more than 10% year over year in September. Strong job growth has pushed up rental demand in Houston. Rent increases have cooled the most in San Francisco, from 14.5% in June down to 7.2% in September – which is still plenty high by national standards – but brings much-needed relief to renters in the SF Bay Area.

Metros with Largest Year-over-year Asking Rent Increases
#	U.S. Metro	% change in rents, Y-o-Y , Sept 2012	% change in rents, Y-o-Y, June 2012
1	Houston, TX	15.9%	6.7%
2	Miami, FL	10.4%	9.9%
3	Seattle, WA	9.6%	9.7%
4	Oakland, CA	9.2%	10.9%
5	Denver, CO	9.0%	10.7%
6	Philadelphia, PA	8.3%	6.0%
7	San Francisco, CA	7.2%	14.5%
8	Chicago, IL	7.0%	5.1%
9	Boston, MA	6.7%	9.4%
10	Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI	6.0%	5.2%

Among the 25 largest rental markets.

This month, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the housing markets in the swing states and on housing policy. Stay tuned for the next Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor, which will be released the day before Election Day, on Monday, November 5 at 10 AM ET.

How did we put this report together? To recap the methodology, the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for the regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal the underlying trend in prices. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes do. Our FAQs provide all the technical details.

Jed Kolko, Chief Economist

Jed leads Trulia’s housing research and provides insight on market trends and public policy to major media outlets including TIME magazine, CNN, and numerous others. Jed’s background includes a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and more than 15 years of publications and research management in economic development, land use and housing policy, and consumer technology adoption.

Florida's housing market continues positive trend in August

ORLANDO, Fla. – Sept. 19, 2012 – Florida’s housing market had more closed sales, more pending sales, higher median prices and a reduced inventory of homes for sale in August, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®.

“Florida’s housing marketing continues its momentum,” said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene, regional manager of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Florida 1st in Fort Lauderdale. “Buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines should see this as a sign to jump in before the market escapes them again. Sellers who have been hesitant to sell should put their homes on the market now. Chances are they will entertain multiple offers and be able to take advantage of historically low interest rates to buy their next home. Now our biggest challenge will be appraisals keeping up with the pace of this market.”

Statewide closed sales of existing single-family homes totaled 18,669 in August, up 10.8 percent compared to the year-ago figure, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department and vendor partner 10K Research and Marketing. Closed sales typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Meanwhile, pending sales – contracts that are signed by not yet completed or closed – of existing single-family homes last month rose 40.2 percent over the previous August. The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $147,000, up 5.8 percent from a year ago.

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in July 2012 was $188,100, up 9.6 percent from the previous year. In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in July was $333,860; in Massachusetts, it was $325,000; in Maryland, it was $261,772; and in New York, it was $233,000.

The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. Housing industry analysts note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

Looking at Florida’s year-to-year comparison for sales of townhomes/condos, a total of 8,767 units sold statewide last month, up 5.7 percent from those sold in August 2011. The statewide median for townhome-condo properties was $102,980, up 13.2 percent over the previous year. NAR reported the national median existing condo price in July 2012 was $180,700.

Last month, the inventory for single-family homes in August stood at a 5.3-months’ supply; inventory for townhome-condo properties was also at a 5.3-months’ supply, according to Florida Realtors. Industry analysts note that a 5.5-months’ supply represents a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

“Florida’s housing market is still reviving,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “Everything that should be going up is going up, and everything that should be going down is going down. After the six years of turmoil that we had, it’s good to see the trends strongly moving in the right direction. We’re hurting for inventory, but it’s possible that the improving conditions will lure more sellers into the market and mitigate the housing inventory crunch.”

The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60 percent in August 2012, lower than the 4.27 percent averaged during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

Miami Beach Distressed Property Report

Distressed Real Estate in Miami-Dade County

The chart above represents all distressed properties in Miami-Dade County, including Miami Beach. There are 10,219 homes for sale in a distressed state. There are more than 1,100 of them selling per month, and about 2,300 properties are being pended per month.

Distressed Real Estate in Miami Beach

Now the true picture is revealed. In ALL of Miami Beach, there are 700 distressed properties on the market for sale, with about 75 of those being sold per month. Since our season ends in June, the dip in pended sales makes sense.

Distressed Miami Beach Real Estate over $500,000

If you break it down even further, approximately 100 of the 700 units in Miami Beach that are in a distressed state are
$500,000 and over—that’s like nothing.

Miami Beach Distressed Real Estate

• 3,121 active listings in Miami Beach
• 700 or 22.4 percent are in a distressed state (bank-owned or short sale)
• 600 of those units are under $500k

September Real Estate Trends in MIAMI

Miami, FL Market Statistics and Real Estate Trends

 

 

Miami, FL September 1, 2012 - Miami's home resale inventories decreased slightly, with a 1 percent decrease since August 2012. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales decreased as a percentage of the total market in September. The median listing price in Miami went up from August to September. There were a total of 224 price increases and 608 price decreases.

 

 

Median List Price

Inventory  

Price Changes  

 

Most Expensive House

3500 St Gaudens Rd, Miami - 10 Beds, 9&1/2 Baths, $22,000,000

Details

Reimagine, Reinvent or Restore this magnificent Mid-Century Miami Modern, 5-acre, 33-room, 26,981 adj SF Coconut Grove estate. Baymere, built by the DuPonts in 1964, boasts 600+/- feet of bayfront, private Harbor, cavernous Boat House, vast Pool, Patio & Terraces, Tennis Court, Guest House & more An unrivaled property w/ tremendous potential to revitalize or transform it as a Family Compound or subdivided Luxury Enclave of 7 homesites. Seeing is
Read More

Least Expensive House

208 NW 84 St #208, Miami - 2 Beds, 1 Baths, $10,000

Details

Adorable 2 Bedroom Townhouse with Excellent Rental Potential. close to public transportation, 10 minutes to downtown, 15 minutes to beach and 5 minutes to Biscayne.Great Location and Awesome Price!!!! section 8 will pay up to $1100 per month! Agents must use attachments. Unit has mold and association is in litigation with water company. Price to be negotiated by bank. Must have proof of funds upwards of $30,000.00
Read More

Highest Square Footage

3500 St Gaudens Rd, Miami - 10 Beds, 9&1/2 Baths, $22,000,000

Details

Reimagine, Reinvent or Restore this magnificent Mid-Century Miami Modern, 5-acre, 33-room, 26,981 adj SF Coconut Grove estate. Baymere, built by the DuPonts in 1964, boasts 600+/- feet of bayfront, private Harbor, cavernous Boat House, vast Pool, Patio & Terraces, Tennis Court, Guest House & more An unrivaled property w/ tremendous potential to revitalize or transform it as a Family Compound or subdivided Luxury Enclave of 7 homesites. Seeing is
Read More

Lowest Square Footage

208 NW 84 St #208, Miami - 2 Beds, 1 Baths, $10,000

Details

Adorable 2 Bedroom Townhouse with Excellent Rental Potential. close to public transportation, 10 minutes to downtown, 15 minutes to beach and 5 minutes to Biscayne.Great Location and Awesome Price!!!! section 8 will pay up to $1100 per month! Agents must use attachments. Unit has mold and association is in litigation with water company. Price to be negotiated by bank. Must have proof of funds upwards of $30,000.00

Bank of America expands short sale incentive to $30,000

By Times Staff
Times StaffTampa Bay Times

Expanding a program that began in Florida, Bank of America plans to entice more distressed homeowners across the county to sell houses in short sales by offering up to $30,000 in relocation money.
The bank tested the program in the fall in Florida, where more than 11,000 homeowners agreed to participate.
The new plan, announced Tuesday, will pay borrowers between $2,500 to $30,000 for moving expenses when a short sale is finalized. The bank expects the greatest response from customers in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona — states hit hardest by the foreclosure crisis.
Florida homeowners who didn't enroll in the test program can now apply for the new plan.
The relocation money will be based on the home's value and mortgage amount. To be eligible, the short sale must be initiated by the end of this year and close by Sept. 26, 2013, the bank said.
The Florida-only program targeted 20,000 homeowners and paid between $5,000 and $20,000. The bank was also waiving the difference between the unpaid mortgage and amount of the short sale, which allowed homeowners to walk away without still owing the bank a big chunk of money.
Since October, Bank of America has rolled out multiple initiatives to speed up short sales and to prevent foreclosures. Last month, it announced plans to approve some short sales in less than 20 days.
The bank serviced 1.1 million Florida mortgages, of which about 253,000 were delinquent as of late last year.

Greater Ft. Lauderdale Home Prices Go Up Again as Inventory Drops 33%

Fort Lauderdale, FL

According to the Miami Association of Realtors, the median sales price of single-family homes during March in Broward County was $180,009, up eight percent compared to March 2011.

The median sales price for condominiums increased 7.1 percent to $75,100 compared to a year prior.  Broward County condominium prices have increased 14 out of the last 15 months.

The average sales price for total single-family homes increased 4.1 percent, from $255,335 to $265,754. The average sales prices for condominiums rose 17.4 percent, from $109,338 in March 2011 to $128,319 last month.

"The Broward County real estate market continues to experience positive trends, as sales remain at strong levels, prices rise, and inventory sharply declines," said Rick Burch, 2012 president of the Broward County Board of Governors of the Miami Association of Realtors.  "The resurgence of the local real estate market benefits the economy, the business community and residents at large.  Demand driven by international buyers and investors, baby boomers, and migration U.S. residents should continue long into the future."

Statewide median sales prices in March increased 20.8 percent to $105,000 for condominiums and 10.3 percent to $139,000 for single-family homes, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department and vendor partner 10K Research and Marketing. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $163,800 in March, a 2.5 percent increase from March 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Broward Housing Inventory Declines 33 Percent

From March 2011, the inventory of residential listings in Broward County has decreased 31 percent from 16,629 to 11,507 in March 2012.  Compared to the previous month, the total inventory of homes dropped four percent.  Total housing inventory nationally declined 1.3 percent at the end of March but is 21.8 percent below a year ago.

"The performance of the Broward County residential real estate market is very encouraging, particularly in regards to consistent price appreciation over the last few months," said Ernesto Vega, president-elect of the Broward County Board of Governors of the Miami Association of Realtors.  "Strong demand continues to result in market strengthening, as supply dwindles."

In Broward County, single-family home sales increased 2.2 percent, from 1,169 in March 2011 to 1,195 last month.  Condominium sales dropped 15 percent in March compared to a year earlier, from 1,837 to 1,550.
By Michael GERRITY

Statewide sales of existing single-family homes totaled 18,370 in March 2012, down 5.7 percent compared to a year ago.  Statewide condominium sales totaled 10,012, down 12 percent from those sold in March 2011. Nationally, sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops decreased 2.6 percent from February but were 5.2 percent higher than they were in March 2011, according to NAR.

Distressed Properties

In March, 41 percent of all closed residential sales in Broward County were distressed, including REOs (bank-owned properties) and short sales, compared to 52 percent in March 2011 and 48 percent the previous month.  Contrary to a year ago, there are now more short sales being transacted than REOs.

International Buyers Fuel Cash Sales

In March, cash sales accounted for 69 percent of all residential sales, 50 percent of single-family and 84 percent of condominium closings, in Broward County.  Nearly 90 percent of international buyers in South Florida purchase properties all cash.  Nationally, all-cash sales were 34 percent in March, reflecting the stronger presence of international buyers in the South Florida real estate market.